Future of Intelligence and Prediction | Future of Humanity Report

5.1 Introduction

Intelligence and Prediction in a World of Rapid Change

The world is changing faster than traditional models can track. Technological disruption reshapes work, life and identity, while predictive systems increasingly influence decisions in finance, health, education, politics and everyday life.

At the same time, there is deep confusion about what intelligence actually is. IQ is often treated as the only measure, even though emotional, social, creative and embodied intelligences are equally vital. Artificial intelligence adds another layer: a powerful tool that can support human foresight, but also catalyse fears of becoming a less intelligent species captured by its own creations.

Core framing: The future of intelligence and prediction is not only about smarter algorithms. It is about who gets to be seen as intelligent, how knowledge is shared or hoarded, and whether predictive systems deepen dependency and discrimination or support autonomy, meaning and collective wisdom.

5.2 Challenges

The Shadow Side of Intelligence and Prediction

These challenges map the current shadow landscape: biased voices, fragile data regimes, IQ reductionism, trend-driven thinking and cultures that resist the deep shifts needed to navigate complexity.

Narrow voices shaping the future

Information, knowledge & power
A small group of mostly white, Western intellectuals often dominates debates about intelligence and prediction. This narrows which experiences and worldviews are seen as valid when designing models that affect everyone.

When only a limited fraction of humanity is allowed to speak, predictive systems risk reflecting existing hierarchies instead of the full spectrum of human knowledge, culture and intelligence.

Discrimination by metrics

Information, knowledge & power
IQ, test scores and narrow performance indicators can become tools for exclusion. When predictive systems are trained on these metrics, they risk reinforcing discrimination in education, hiring, credit, health and migration.

The desire to measure everything creates a culture where those who do not fit standardised intelligence templates are treated as less capable, even when they hold essential emotional, creative or intuitive strengths.

Misinformation, disinformation & fake news

Information, knowledge & power
Fake news, sloppy science, plagiarism and deliberate disinformation make it harder to build predictive models that can be trusted. When knowledge ecosystems are polluted, every forecast sits on shaky ground.

Without robust vetting of facts and scientific integrity, prediction becomes guesswork dressed up as certainty, and people lose confidence in both experts and systems.

Unequal access to knowledge

Information, knowledge & power
Many communities face barriers to education, digital skills and high-quality information. At the same time, ownership models keep key knowledge behind paywalls or proprietary systems.

When intelligence tools are built and controlled by a few, while others lack even basic access to education, prediction becomes a source of dependency instead of empowerment.

Trend-driven, past-locked foresight

Information, knowledge & power
Many predictive models primarily extrapolate from past data and current trends. This can lock futures thinking into yesterday’s assumptions and blind spots, especially when complexity and emergent phenomena are ignored.

When projections are treated as destiny rather than hypotheses, societies risk following wrong signals and overlooking radically different possibilities.

Misunderstanding intelligence

Mindsets & human psyche
Intelligence is frequently reduced to IQ or cognitive speed. Emotional, social, intuitive and creative intelligences are undervalued, even though they are crucial for ethical judgement, collaboration and innovation.

This negative and narrow framing fuels fears of “not being intelligent enough” and makes it easier for artificial intelligence systems to be perceived as superior, rather than complementary, to human capacities.

Too much logic, not enough heart

Mindsets & human psyche
Rational analysis is essential, but when prediction culture is dominated by logic alone, intuition, empathy and ethical sensitivity can be sidelined as “irrational”.

This imbalance risks producing technically precise forecasts that are emotionally tone-deaf, socially harmful or misaligned with deeper human values.

From active creators to passive consumers

Mindsets & human psyche
As prediction tools become more personalised and convenient, people can slide from active sense-makers into passive recipients of recommendations, scores and risk labels.

Over time, this erodes self-reliance, problem-solving skills and the willingness to question systems, making it harder to change course when predictions are biased or harmful.

Mindset bias and ego power

Mindsets & human psyche
Predictive models are often built and interpreted through existing biases and ego-driven narratives. Confirmation bias, status games and fear of being wrong distort how intelligence tools are used and communicated.

When the goal is to defend an image of being “right” or “smart”, rather than to learn, intelligence becomes a weapon for power instead of a tool for collective understanding.

Data leaks, ownership and privacy

Data, privacy & agency
Prediction systems rely on vast amounts of data. Data leaks, unclear ownership, invasive tracking and opaque sharing agreements create deep mistrust and real harm for individuals and communities.

When data becomes “human material” to be harvested, the line between necessary privacy and unnecessary secrecy blurs, and people lose agency over their own digital traces and identity.

Hybrid humans and blurred boundaries

Data, privacy & agency
As predictive systems integrate with bodies, behaviours and environments, daily life becomes increasingly algorithmically mediated. Human and machine intelligence intertwine in ways that are not yet fully understood or governed.

These hybrid constellations can expand capabilities, but they can also open new avenues for manipulation, profiling and control at very intimate levels.

Uncertainty, skills gaps and culture resistance

Systems, structures & culture
Rapid technological change creates uncertainty and skills gaps. Many people feel overwhelmed, underprepared or excluded, while institutions struggle to adapt and maintain control.

Resistance to change, fear of losing power and lack of shared vision make it difficult to move from small adjustments to the radical cultural transformation needed for more intelligent societies.

System fragility and crash risk

Systems, structures & culture
Prediction infrastructures are often centralised and tightly coupled. When they fail, entire sectors can be disrupted. A culture that relies on automated forecasts without questioning assumptions becomes fragile and brittle.

Investment flows, political decisions and everyday choices can all be steered by models that have hidden errors or blind spots, making systemic crises more likely when conditions change.

Echo chambers and trend obedience

Systems, structures & culture
People increasingly cluster with like-minded communities, both online and offline. Predictive feeds reinforce existing views, while trend-oriented projections encourage following what appears popular rather than what is wise or true.

This dynamic weakens independent thinking and makes it harder to build a shared understanding of reality, even as prediction systems claim to offer clarity about what comes next.

Tip: Use the filters above to explore challenges across mindsets & human psyche, information, knowledge & power, data, privacy & agency, and systems, structures & culture. Click More on any card to see deeper layers.

5.3 Solutions

Pathways Toward Self-Sustaining, Shared Intelligence

These solutions imagine a future where intelligence is not a scarce commodity, but a shared, living capacity: accessible to everyone, nourished by community, rooted in meaning and guided by heart as well as logic.

Balancing logic, intuition and heart

Mindsets & inner capacities
Encourage forms of intelligence that integrate analytical thinking with intuition, empathy, imagination and ethical reflection, rather than privileging logic alone.

This balance helps individuals and institutions make predictions that are not only accurate on paper, but also humane, context-sensitive and aligned with deeper values.

From excuses to agency

Mindsets & inner capacities
Move from explaining away moral responsibility to actively seeking solutions. Instead of blaming systems or data, people and organisations can choose to open their minds, think out of the box and act where they stand.

This shift in mindset turns predictive tools into companions for change, rather than excuses for inaction or paralysis.

Integrity, independence and self-reliance

Mindsets & inner capacities
Cultivate inner integrity and independent thinking so that individuals and communities can use predictions without being captured by them. Intelligence becomes a practice of discernment rather than blind trust in models.

The core questions become: How can self-reliance be nurtured? How can every person develop a mind of their own, even in an environment saturated with automated guidance?

Meaning, gratitude and purpose

Mindsets & inner capacities
Support people in finding meaning and reflecting on gratitude, so that intelligence is not just a tool for optimisation, but a way to orient life toward what truly matters.

When purpose, empathy and kindness are treated as central forms of intelligence, predictions can be evaluated in terms of their contribution to wellbeing, not only efficiency.

Free, accessible and inspiring education

Education, skills & literacy
Make high-quality learning easy to access for everyone, across age, geography and background. Treat education as a commons, not a commodity reserved for a few.

This includes intuitive learning formats, experiential environments and materials that nurture curiosity, critical thinking, logical reasoning and creativity around data and prediction.

Algorithms in service of learning

Education, skills & literacy
Use algorithms in education to support understanding, exploration and growth, not to rank and exclude. Adaptive systems can help people discover how they think and learn best.

When learners see predictive tools as mirrors for their own development, they are more likely to engage actively and less likely to internalise limiting labels.

Developing all forms of intelligence

Education, skills & literacy
Design curricula and practices that value analytical, emotional, social, creative, embodied and spiritual intelligences. Help people recognise and access their own unique constellation of strengths.

This broader view weakens the cultural grip of IQ-only narratives and opens space for more diverse talent to be seen, supported and included in shaping futures.

Less consumption, more creation

Community, culture & collaboration
Shift cultures of prediction from passive content consumption to active creation: ideas, projects, narratives, prototypes, questions and experiments that test and enrich foresight.

When creativity and individuality are encouraged, people can move beyond algorithmic defaults and co-create new pathways instead of only reacting to projected trends.

Communities of meaning and passion

Community, culture & collaboration
Build communities around shared passions and causes, not only around agreement. Encourage exchanges of real feelings, interests, visions and imagination across differences.

Such communities can become spaces where people experiment with new models of intelligence together, support each other through uncertainty and resist being confined to echo chambers.

Connecting through tech, meeting in reality

Community, culture & collaboration
Use digital platforms to connect people and share knowledge, but make sure that the most important work happens in real-life encounters, local projects and embodied experiences, including with nature in daily life.

This balance anchors predictive conversations in lived reality, relationships and place, rather than floating in abstract dashboards alone.

Awakening a critical mass

Community, culture & collaboration
Support widespread awakening to the fact that every person holds intelligence and can contribute to shaping futures. Collective awareness becomes a counterweight to centralised predictive power.

When enough people recognise their agency, it becomes possible to move from isolated efforts to shared experiments in reimagining how intelligence is developed and used.

Intelligence systems that redistribute power

Design, technology & innovation
Design predictive tools that make complex information easier to understand and act on for many, not only for experts and investors. Prioritise transparency, interpretability and shared ownership where possible.

This includes interfaces that explain uncertainty, invite questions and allow communities to contribute local knowledge back into models.

Creativity at the restructuring of systems

Design, technology & innovation
Bring creative thinking into the redesign of institutions, markets and infrastructures that depend on prediction. Treat systemic transformation itself as a creative, intelligent act.

This approach encourages experimentation with new governance forms, economic logics and collaboration patterns, instead of simply automating old structures.

Shared vision and alignment

Systems, governance & infrastructure
Develop clear, shared visions of what a world of self-sustaining intelligence could look like: where all are intelligent, where societies are more self-sufficient and where expansion and growth are understood beyond material metrics alone.

Such visions can be used to align investments, policies, education systems and community initiatives, so that transformation is not only radical, but also coherent and grounded in common purpose.

Prototyping the future together

Systems, governance & infrastructure
Use prediction tools and intelligence frameworks as starting points for collective prototyping. Bring people together to test new ideas, models and behaviours in small, concrete projects.

In this role, institutions, artists, educators and technologists can act as catalysts: convening communities, sharing knowledge and creating visible examples of alternative futures in action.

Tip: Filter by Mindsets & inner capacities, Education, skills & literacy, Community, culture & collaboration, Design, technology & innovation, or Systems, governance & infrastructure to explore different levers for shifting how intelligence and prediction evolve.

5.4 Path Forward

From Predicting the Future to Co-Creating It

The future of intelligence and prediction is not a fixed outcome that can be calculated once and for all. It is a living process in which models, stories, communities and inner lives constantly interact and evolve together.

A wise intelligence culture will:

  • treat prediction as a tool for learning, not for control,
  • see intelligence as multiple and shared, not scarce and owned,
  • prioritise inclusion, meaning and dignity over pure optimisation,
  • use data with care, consent and transparency,
  • and invite people of all ages and backgrounds to participate in shaping what comes next.

In such a culture, the key questions shift from “What will happen to us?” to “How can intelligence, in all its forms, help people live meaningful, self-sustaining, interdependent lives on a changing planet?”. Prediction becomes less about fear of losing control and more about collectively discovering how to respond with courage, creativity and care.

The coming era will not be defined only by artificial intelligence scores or forecasting dashboards. It will be defined by how communities grow their own intelligence – logical, emotional, social, creative and spiritual – and how these forms of knowing are woven together into shared action.

This interactive chapter is part of the Future of Humanity Report and is intended as a living document that can evolve with new questions, perspectives and experiments.

Many of these ideas were collected during the Future of Humanity Experience in Basel 2025. More information: Future of Humanity at Basel 2025.